A plea for mathematical humility

Discussion in 'Saltwater' started by wadin' boot, Jul 10, 2014.

  1. wadin' boot

    wadin' boot Donny, you're out of your element...

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    When folks throw up the summer reports of their beach successes, I'm hoping the "went 3 for 9" report that got real common last summer is buried in a bite of humility. At the very least, this ain't baseball. For instance that stat almost never takes into account number of casts, likely numbers of fish in the vicinity, let alone a concession that a small piece of weed, a slow retrieved clouser bouncing over a small undersea ridge or even an encounter with a jelly could all be interpreted as a "take" or "a gentle take" or a "short strike."

    Ratio reports, if absolutely necessary (which I would argue they never are) should have a conversion denominator aka BullS*%t correction that in general is around the vicinity of 2000 or so- at minimum, and again, varying with peak run timing.

    So a 3 for 9 day is then divided again by 2000 for a stat of 0.00016666666.
    Now that number doesn't look near as impressive, if you are used to say batting averages, but to those of us who understand the vagaries of "angling with fly" it is actually a stellar day.

    You see where this is going in the age of seminars and classes right....if folks are aiming for the creation of a reliable and accurate report (which is a whole other issue in itself ) it is far preferable for a beach fly fisher to make the ratio as unappealing as possible to the casual reader. All of us back here would know a good day from bad, but the internet lurker who would see that stat would think, man, that day sucks, no way am I going to fish certain beach(es) this week. Better to get a factory boat out of Westport...

    Net effect, fewer folks on the beach...

    This is a request not from a crank, but also in part a plea for my own sanity. Stuck at work and taking call on the nicest of summer beach fishing days (sorta overcast, 60's-low 70's, not too windy) is painful enough and then the reports come in on how the fishing is easy...ugggh...

    Keep it a little vague, keep the magic....
     
  2. stilly stalker

    stilly stalker Tuna sniffer

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    hahahaha!!! so if I caught 3 fish off the beach this am, and made 200 casts... I have a 1.5% casting success rate. I like it. Maybe I need a clicker to start counting my casts.
     
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  3. Chris Bellows

    Chris Bellows Your Preferred WFF Poster

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    what about false casts?
     
  4. DennisE

    DennisE Topwater and tying.

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    You need a Ghillie to handle the clicker. (And the scotch flask?)
     
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  5. wadin' boot

    wadin' boot Donny, you're out of your element...

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    Not even close, so if there were like 100,000 fish within a 1/10 of a mile, then it would be more like 3/200/100000= 1.5 to the E-7 or .00000015 or .000015%.

    IE You suck ;)

    BTW just got some intel from a coworker an Osprey that lives in the tree behind their house close to Federal Way/Redondo was eating a fresh Salmon this AM.

    Osprey 1:1
     
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  6. Dizane

    Dizane Coast to Coast

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    Most worthwhile thing I've read on this forum in months.
     
  7. Irafly

    Irafly Active Member

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    Did you take into account flight time? Spotted fish that were able to move off quick enough? What about aborted dives? What about flat out misses and the "flop" swim to the beach? 1:1 I think is way off. Recalculate please.
     
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  8. jeff bandy

    jeff bandy Make my day

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    "100,000 fish within 1/10 of a mile"
    Lets take a look at that.;
    that's 2/10s x 1/10 (assuming your on a beach, not in a boat)or 645,248 dev. 100,000 = 6.45 fish per sq. ft.
    I don't see how I'm not hooking up on every cast.
     
  9. wadin' boot

    wadin' boot Donny, you're out of your element...

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    Jeff, the numbers don't lie...did you try strip setting?
     
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  10. stilly stalker

    stilly stalker Tuna sniffer

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    maybe you arent fishing with a high end enough rod........OR you need to use a strike indicator
     
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  11. jeff bandy

    jeff bandy Make my day

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    That's called snagging!
     
  12. DimeBrite

    DimeBrite MA-9 Beach Stalker

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    All it will take is one season of poor salmon returns, then the beaches will be all ours again.
    El Nino is coming Ned Stark.

    Ned Stark.jpg


     
  13. stilly stalker

    stilly stalker Tuna sniffer

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    I am lovig LOVING LOVING El Nino. I might be able to catch a TUNA off the beach with a fly rod this year.

    Tuna already showing up in Newport and LA harbor- ridiculous
     
  14. Bradley Miller

    Bradley Miller Dances with fish

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    Gotta love mother nature.....
     
  15. Rob Ast

    Rob Ast Active Member

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    But I thought the seaweed hook-ups counted. In a heavy current they sure give you a tug.
     
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  16. nomlasder

    nomlasder Active Member

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    I think Boot and Bandy are approaching the topic of fish catch rate probability to linear.

    Adrien-Marie Legendre (1805) developed the method of least squares, and introduced it in his Nouvelles méthodes pour la détermination des probailitie des fish (New Methods for Determining the Probability of Fish).[citation needed] In ignorance of Legendre's contribution, an Irish-American writer, Robert Adrain, editor of "The Analyst" (1808), first deduced the law of facility of error,
    [​IMG]
    where [​IMG] is a constant depending on precision of observation, and [​IMG] is a scale factor ensuring that the area under the curve equals 1. He gave two proofs, the second being essentially the same as John Herschel's (1850).[citation needed] Gauss gave the first proof that seems to have been known in Europe (the third after Adrain's) in 1809. Further proofs were given by Laplace (1810, 1812), Gauss (1823), James Ivory (1825, 1826), Hagen (1837), Friedrich Bessel (1838), W. F. Donkin (1844, 1856), and Morgan Crofton (1870). Other contributors were Ellis (1844), De Morgan (1864), Glaisher (1872), and Giovanni Schiaparelli (1875). Peters's (1856) formula[clarification needed] for r, the probable error of a single observation, is well known.[to whom?]
     
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  17. jeff bandy

    jeff bandy Make my day

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    They all forgot or did not know the biggest variable. Fishermen lie!
     
  18. mtskibum16

    mtskibum16 Active Member

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    Do people usually include light bumps, etc in the X for Y count? The X's are easy (fish to the beach), but for me the Y's are only solid takes with some form of a hookup. As in at least a couple head shakes before it's gone. Bumps, taps, "short strikes", seaweed, and that Zen moment when you know a fish is following (but don't actually feel or see anything) do not count towards my Y's.

    All that said, I totally agree with boot's last sentence.
     
  19. rotato

    rotato Active Member

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    For the record I went 0 for 324 casts minus 2 flounder and 2 bullheads and several line management issues in the coastal surf
    The fog was nice and cool though
     
  20. coastal cutthroat

    coastal cutthroat Member

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    You left out the most important mathematical contribution -- this is obviously a Poisson process.
     

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