another disturbing impact

Discussion in 'Fly Fishing Forum' started by gt, Feb 15, 2008.

  1. Jim Wallace

    Jim Wallace Smells like low tide

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    Again going to the link that gt gave us in his original post, I was looking at the "map" of the dead zone off our coast and it got me wondering about what seasons are the worst for ag runnoff spilling into the Pacific from the mouths of the Columbia, Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor.

    Most likely Fall through Spring when the rains and river flows are heaviest.

    This is also the time of year when the prevailing winds, which help set up the surface currents along the coast, are NOT out of the northwest, but often from the E to SE as storms approach, and turning to from the S or SW as the front hits the shore and moves inland. This would set up southerly currents (called the Davidson Current?) that move all those nutrients (fertilizer and cowshit runnoff) northward.

    go back to that link and look at that map of the dead zone. Looks to me like you can point the finger at agricultural runoff. If it is indeed one of the major culprits behind this particular dead zone, then by extension you might think that more fertilizer applied to the land to grow more biofuel crops will eventually result in more of the same kind of runoff, making the dead zone worse or bigger.

    I know the scenario I just described is pretty damn simplistic, but it crossed my mind.
     
  2. Evan Burck

    Evan Burck Fudge Dragon

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    look guys, the real cause of what's happening is shown right here. you can't argue with these facts.
    [​IMG]
     
  3. Coach Duff

    Coach Duff Banned or Parked

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    I love it when people get emotionally charged about steadfastly backing either one of those packs of criminals, thieves and liars. In cast you are not tracking along, I mean politicians. I was sent into harm's way to procure natural recources or to protect our interests in natural recources by both parties. Just one sent me with better equipment and ran more covert ops and the other one, twisted things into humanitarian missions and used that as a bullshit cover story for their own covert ops. Neither one had a problem throwing away good troopers lives for oil, uranium or any other resource. It's amazing how much insight you get on our politicians with a TS clearance, a rifle and rucksack. By then again, most of you get your facts from the media right? And of course they have no slant, lean or hidden agendas do they? And of course, all scientists are above being payed off, using their knowledge to influence others to advance their own fame and agendas right? Naaaaah. You guys can spin their bullshit in any way you want, but I quit waiting for the tooth fairy years ago. Call me when there is a 3rd or 4th party.
    In the meantime, bi-partisan BS will continue to give us two deceitful sides of any issue and keep us divided as a country, while they keep filling up their bank accounts and pumping us full of special interests propeganda. The truth (as in anything) usually lies somewhere in the middle, but we don't have a people's voice (political party) for common sense and moderation and true conservation now do we? By the way, hasn't King County the power district in the state been Democratic for many moons now? Yeah, their conservation record has been steller.:rolleyes: Their school districts are even more impressive. I had boots on the ground in that battle too. But then you can blame that on the Republican presidency, who in turn can blame it on the Democratic local government and nothing will get done, but we'll argue and talk about "change" while the machine keeps rolling. Call me when the third party gets ready to go, I'll carry a damn sign around on a street corner for weeks at a time. Until then, I'm going to try to reduce my own global footbprint as much as possible, read as much as I can about Global Warming (while always checking the source) educate my children, and neighbors and support good conservation groups (that are politically unafflilated) and watch you guys get played like fiddles, and fight like little old ladies about the dellusional virtues of being Republican or Democrat.
     
  4. SteveA

    SteveA Gnu to the board

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    Al Gore was president!? I must have missed that headline.
     
  5. FT

    FT Active Member

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    Ah yes, the infamous 96% confidence level. Don't forget that this condidence level was nothing more than the confidence they had in the computer models being able to predict future climate change (whether warming or cooling). Unfortunately, they left out (and said so right up front in the IPC report, while at the same time also stating that these things have important, but difficult to predict effects) things like cloud cover, solar flares, amount and duration of snow cover, La Nina, El Nino, volcanic activity, dust storms, amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, and wind effects on ocean currents and temperatures. And why did they leave out these things despite saying they were important, they were too difficult to predict because they were naturally occuring phenomena.

    Instead, they relied on what things they could add (known as forcings) to the computer models such as CO2, but leaving out things like nitrous oxide (which cooled things off in the models). Hmmmm, I wonder why. It makes me think that there was a desired result from the admittedly not very accurate computer models, which are pretty much the same ones used to predict our weather, and we all know how accurate forecasts are for a week away, not to mention how great they are at predicting (forecasting) the weather 3 months away.

    What happened to the predictions made this summer and early fall about us having a warmer, wetter winter with less snow. Gee I guess they missed it. Oh wait, La Nina returned and that made all the difference causing a colder north Pacific and a colder winter with record snow levels. But the computer models don't even include La Nina or El Nino. Naw, it couldn't be, the models can't be that far off could they? And our passes couldn't have had that much snow. It must be our imagination that snow records have been set this winter.
     
  6. gt

    gt Active Member

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    climate change cuts both ways, warmer-colder, i think that is one of the primary reasons the lingo was modified to begin with.

    you can choose to believe anything that makes you feel comfortable, no worries from me on that score. butt, the ice went away in the artic this summer, the glaciers are all melting away, the boreal forest is moving north along with all the bugs that kill trees, native villages are sinking on the thawed permafrost, and some people will choose to put their heads up where it is very dark and deny.

    no worries, i will have water front property before much longer.
     
  7. WPEB

    WPEB member

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    Geez, you have quite an outlook.

    If you look right here in our state you'll notice that glaciers are advancing, not everywhere mind you, but as with the natural cycle of mother nature glaciers retreat and advance, ice melts and grows, etc. Remember the eruption at Mount St. Helens? No glaciers left on there after that and with global warming it seems like it would stay that way right? Well not so and some researchers up there are saying the glacier that formed in the crater is growing at an alarming rate. Sure, most glaciers are retreating, but many including glaciers in Alaska, South America, Asia, Europe are growing. Ice in parts of Antarctica, yes Antarctica, is growing so much that it causes the ice loss on the Antarctic Peninsula to become negligible. Inland Greenland is having record cold. i don't know about you but I found these things interesting

    Its funny how you say climate change cuts both ways and yet only describe the warming induced problems.

    As for the head up my ass thing, I just like to get my facts straight. As I said in an earlier post I have found no credible evidence linking humans and global warming. And to continue what Coach said, to think that only the scientists that advocate natural climate-change are on large corporate payrolls would be naive, if not idiotic.
     
  8. gt

    gt Active Member

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    glaciers advancing??? point me to some evidence of that please.

    here is a link for'yah - http://ak.water.usgs.gov/glaciology/hubbard/index.htm - please take careful note in your reading of the word ATYPICAL.

    facts are indeed important, so are the interpretations which are being made. and please keep in mind that in 'science', there is no definite, it is all a matter of probability. are there going to be anomolies?? of course there are but that is why you have to rely on the preponderence of data, not isolated examples. or, you can clasp hands with tom delay and simply and positively declare '...man is not causing the earth to warm...'
     
  9. dryflylarry

    dryflylarry "Chasing Riseforms"

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    Right on GT! No use beating our heads anymore.... :thumb: :beathead:
     
  10. WPEB

    WPEB member

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    Good job everyone, you did it. Give your self a big hand, this argument can cease :rolleyes:. gt, if climate change cuts both ways, which you stated in an earlier post, then some glaciers would have to advance, right?

    Edited: I'm not quite sure what I am doing trying to convince you of anything. If a guy LIVING IN ANTARCTICA can't convince you of anything, what the hell chance do I have? Frankly I am too tired of this. Maybe I will see you guys on a river sometime and we can discuss it face to face.
     
  11. Wildlander

    Wildlander Banned or Parked

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    Absolutely incorrect. The overall effect has been an increase in temperatures. That is what the scientists are tellling us. We have an overall increase world wide... the reason it is appropriately called 'global warming'.

    The NOAA data for the Bowers Field airport in Ellensburg shows our winters were CONSISTENTLY 20 BELOW ZERO up until the late 1970's when a distinct warming trend started. It is a far longer trend than the 10 year droughts of the Bible. In Ellensburg, we hit nearly 30 below zero about one in ten years during our coldest winters. We have not seen 10 below here in over ten years. Our maximum summer temps were rarely in the 90's with high 80's the norm. Last year we hit near 110. This is NOAA data. You cannot argue with that. Furthur more, the 10 degree the repubs are saying over then next century has already happened here. We already have a 20 degree change in both our winter and summer temps. And it is still getting hotter. Faster.

    Denial is human nature. No one wants to admit they are at fault of something. And that is the only issue that remains with global warming.
    There are billions of people on the earth for the first time in the earths history. It is clear in ecology (I am an ecologist) that all animals overpopulate and then destroy much of their habitat and resources and the population collapses. Lemmings of course are the most common example but we seen it in the natural cycles of rabbits and coyotes as well., Humans have no natural predators and, more importantly, a technology which has allowed us to go far beyond that natural threshold of collapse forming a kind of ecological bubble....

    and I would suggest it is about to pop. Take a look on the back of packet of seed. The maps of the USDA zones. You can find them on the Arbor Day website. And you can find it here in a discussion Dr Haard and I have had in pursuing this issue... a comparison of the USDA zone maps for washington state. TWENTY degree difference in some areas... Two zones. The zones of California are now here in eastern Washington.

    You know, people think in the short term. Many are not even old enough to remember the ice fishing in eastern washington when our trout would freeze solid after two flops. Or when you could spit up into the air and it would freeze solid before it hit the ground to go tinkling over the ice. We had some ice fishing this year. I was on the ice. But not like we used to have. Young people in particular refuse to acknowledge what they have no experience with. And I can tell you our winters, our fishing, has changed dramatically over the last 40 years. And any honest cowboy that has lived his whole life in this state will tell you the same. We do not have real winters anymore and our summers are scorchers compared to what they were before the 1970's.

    For the Christian, the Lord said that heaven and earth would pass away but that his words would not. And he also served as a model - even when the odds were completely against him, he still tried to the very end. THAT is our model. In the book of Genesis, God gave the rainbow covenant after the flood to Noah... but not just Noah! He specifically stated the covenant was to mankind "AND" all the creatures of the earth. His creatures. Read it and weep - we do NOT necessarily have a special place in creation. And if he presented us with the first act of conservation by loading the Ark, and addressed the other animals specifically, well then it is clear that Christians were intended to be environmentalists and protect God's natural creation instead of being like a cancer, destroying it as we consume it all. We are following the example of the middle east in that regard. And in fact, that desertification is now happening on a 'global' scale. There used to be forests in Iraq, Afganistan, Iran, etc. Not everywhere but they did have forests. That area is largely 100 percent desert today because of an unsustainable level of humans comsuming those resources so long ago.

    All you have to do is go look at the USDA plant zones. Compare them to 15 years ago....

    http://www.fourthcornernurseries.com/Article13.asp

    Here is another kicker. Biological systems have this thing called latency.
    We see it in all biological and ecological cycles. Summer and winter solstice are the prime examples. The shortest day of the year when the sun is the lowest and the least amount of solar radiation reaching us in winter is NOT the coldest days of winter. The coldest days are 30-45 days later in late January. Ask yourself why? The same with summer, the longest day and the day when the sun is most directly overhead is June 21st. But our hottest days are in August some 30-45 days later.

    This is latency. And there is real evidence that the damage we are causing today... even last year... even ten years ago.... are still coming to haunt us with temps that are out of this world. And still we have the technology and the time to reduce much of the effect of that latency - but only IF the minority of republicans in denial would get out of the way. Some in fact know what the situation is, but arrogantly and pridefully say that they will only live another 20 years and they don't give a damn what happens after that. It is all for personal profit and greed... and to hell with everyone and everything else.

    These are the most satanic in our society.

    You know, there are some that are waiting for science to be 100 percent unanimous on this issue. But the truth is, science is NEVER unanimous. The scientific community has always acted on a principle of "the majority rules". And we have long gone past the 60 or even 70 percent of scientists that are literally screaming at us to do somethihng. And still we have jackels in denial muddying the waters (some intentionally for short term personal profit) for the rest of us.

    The ethical man, the moral man will consider the possibility that we are already beyond the point of no return. But stilff fight to turn things around. At all costs. But of course not while such same unethical people run our government. And so the words of Christ will come true even as we still struggle to the very end. "Heaven and earth will pass away but my words will not pass away."


    God help us.

    Ken Boettger
    Wildlander
    Ellensburg, WA
     
  12. Wildlander

    Wildlander Banned or Parked

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    WPEB,

    Glaciers advancing in Washington???

    Clearly you are one of the ones with a serious case of denial... to point of lying.

    Wildlander
     
  13. Wildlander

    Wildlander Banned or Parked

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    Coach Duff,

    The closest thing we have right now to a third party is Ron Paul. Not perfect, but it as close at it gets. He is well known to hold to the constitution and the constitution is about acting on behalf of the majority - including scientists. And so he is a real potential solution to moving us forward on global warming regardless of his personal views (and he has demonstrated as a senator for the last 10 years).

    To the reader, please go to his website and read about him. For the fish. For the fishermen. For the world. For the sake of Christ. A man that does not wear his Christianity on his sleeve or use it as a bully pulpit.

    Wildlander
     
  14. knothead

    knothead Banned or Parked

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    Okay, okay. This thing does not go away, so I must add my two cents.
    Let's say that we all converted to this new religion, " Man Made Global Warming". All the naysaying Republicans, the ones that have'nt converted, have been shipped off to reindoctrination camps.Now what? Will the true believers finally have the courage of thier convictions?.
    Will they now throw away thier computers and get off the internet? My computer is mostly made of plastics, a by-product of crude oil, what is yours made of? Hemp. My computer runs off electricity, does yours? 40% of electricity in this country comes from coal fired plants, all the electricity in the NW comes from Hydro. It boogles my mind to think of all the processes that have taken place just so that I can surf the web. All the crude that was refined, all the electricity that was generated. Everything that I can touch at this very moment has been impacted in one way or another by those processes that are claimed to be the source of "Man Made Global Warming".
    Will you now stop fishing? Look at your Rod, your waders, your lines, your sunglasses. Not to mention getting your self to and from the river. Are you going to make your rods of bamboo, your lines of braided horsehair, will you now only fish those rivers that are close enough to walk to?
    While your at it you might as well quit drinking as well. Have you considered all the refined crude that went into that bottle of Beer? The hops, barley, oats, had to be harvested. By Diesel Equipment. It had to be hauled to the Brewery. Diesel Truck. It had to be processed. Electricity. Then it had to be delivered to your favorite corner store, Diesel Truck. Then you had to hop into your vehicle and go get it, and maybe a pack of smokes to boot. Let's not even think about those implications. (I know some of you think that the store guy just goes out back and picks those bottles of beer off of the beer tree.)
    Do you have the courage of your convictions?
    Or. Are you one of those that need to have a huge federal beauracracy that will tell us all how to live our lives?
    Will you have the courage of your convictions then?
    Or. Is the only courage you have is to run around crying, "the sky is falling, the sky is falling"
    Put up or shut-up.
    I would rather see a sermon than hear a sermon.
    Where does your personal accountability lie?

    And further more. What ever happened to your first love, "Evolution"? Is'nt what ever is going on just a part of that? Are we not the highest life form? Would we actually do our selves in? Could Darwin have been wrong?

    Is this your courage? Anonymity on the internet.

    I am Christian, Conservative, and Republican, so there.
     
  15. Richard Olmstead

    Richard Olmstead BigDog

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    Huh? highest life form? Evolution doesn't have any goal, so whatever happens to our environment will have evolutionary effects, unfortunately our impact is likely to result in extinction of many life forms. Many folks think that would be a shame. I think Wildlander got it right that Christians should be concerned about behaving in a way that serves to preserve forms of life other than ourselves.
    D
     
  16. WPEB

    WPEB member

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    Wow, i was going to let this go, but personal attacks aren't something I typically let slide. Thats a good way to win people over to your side :rolleyes:. Look it up before you speak.

    There is so much to pick apart i don't know where to start.

    First off, if we are talking about science, please don't bring religion into it. I have been to sunday school and read the bible. It has no place in this particular debate.

    Lets go paragraph by paragraph:


    Uhh, i was just responding to what GT said. If you would have read the rest of this thread you would have noticed that most have seen a rise in the use of "climate change."

    Airports, thats a good place to measure temps... Have you noticed large population growth in the area? Anyhow, over here on the west side we had a very mild summer. Does this prove anything? No. Do I believe that warming is not occurring? No. What I have been pointing out is that things aren't nearly as dramatic as some would like us to believe. I wonder what temps would have been like had we not "destroyed the environment?" Or better yet, what is the temperature "supposed" to be?

    This doesn't really tell me anything. Memories of the fallacies of logic just came rushing back. "Post Hoc ergo propter hoc" seems to ring a bell.

    Yeah yeah, back in the era when everyone thought we were going into another ice age, right? Which seems odd being that 4 of the top ten hottest years on record were in the thirties....hmmm. Hot in the thirties and cold in the seventies, then hot again now. What the hell is going on?

    Sorry if I am getting in your way, I have tendency to do that. And your right, its all out of ignorance and pride. I can't hurt my precious pride. But you are wrong about one thing; I have much more than 20 years to go. Hopefully i will go another fifty to sixty, so i definitely care about what is going to happen. Don't put all "naysayers" into one group of old greedy republicans who want to leave this place a hell hole after they die.
    Frankly, I don't even know what I am arguing with you about. You seem to have everything all figured out. Actually, you have finished the debate before it has even begun.

    Wow... were you in debate club?


    Science not unanimous? is that how it works? Obviously science is never unanimous and I don't think anyone has argued that it wasn't. And yes, we have typically gone by "majority rules," but how has that worked in the past? The earth was flat, there was no such thing as evolution, etc.. Personally I believe we should not go by "majority rules" when it comes to science, but by which side has the best scientific evidence. So far I have not seen it from the global warming side.

    Phil, the wishing the global warming would kick into effect now so I could go a carp fishin.
     
  17. knothead

    knothead Banned or Parked

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    Actually, Christians are most often called according to thier talents. For some crazy reason, after having raised 5 children I was called to become a foster parent. Secularist should concern themselves with what thier own moral compass calls them to. We Christians have an instruction manual. We are called, collectively, to be good stewards of all that has been given us, including the enviroment and all of God's little creatures. I do not see being called to be an alarmist as a noble calling.
    You would really have something worthy to say if you were to tell me that you had restored a stream today. You may even inspire.
    Christians are taught that faith without works is dead. It might apply, as well, to you secularists. If you want to inform and/or inspire then tell me what your works are.
     
  18. FFK

    FFK Member

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    how did religion even get draged into this, whats that have to do with climate change?
     
  19. WPEB

    WPEB member

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    http://www.mshinstitute.org/mshi-news/oregonianglaciersabelas.com/

    Mt st. helens institute is noticing the glacier advance too...hmm.. It seems odd that there would be a glacier there at all with all the things working against it: the eruption, and then global warming, and now with the recent volcanic activity the mountain has seen in the past couple years...

    Emmons glacier on Rainier is still advancing, though at a slower rate. Nisqually glacier's rate of retreat is slowing.

    Anyway, if we have a mild summer like we did last year, combine that with the massive snowpack we have had this winter and we have a recipe for a glacier growing season.

    -Phil, the can you fish in a river of ice?
     
  20. gt

    gt Active Member

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    if you had clicked on the link i posted, it was a discussion of an advancing glacier in AK. however, it also pointed out that even though there are glaciers advancing, albeit it a small number of them, they are ANOMOLIES, as the vast majority of fixed ice, world wide, is running to the sea as melt water. for glaciers in this state to actually post advances for back to back years, back to back decades, would require a reversal in the climate change we are currently experiencing. any minor uptick, and that is what you are actually alluding too, is not going to come out in the wash. those are ANOMOLIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    and has also been pointed out, this is science in action, that means there will NEVER be total agreement.

    and for all of you admitted 'christians', how come you have not adopted the new christian right philosophy of taking care of this planet? it appears that only folks like delay and the neocons are still in denial regarding climate change. of course i know that has nothing to do with 'agendas' and their undying support of gas, oil and coal, now does it???
     

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