The "historical" or current "average" is only one part of the equation...runs were likely quite variable in the past as they are today...we just have little data to know this. While I think it is hard to say (and even folks looking at cannery records aren't saying this) that the "historical" run was always 60,000 on the Stilly, a simple math exercise suggests this isn't too implausible. We know that freshwater smolt production has been drastically reduced due to habitat damage. We also know that marine survival is currently as low as we have ever observed. If we start with 60,000 smolts and multiply take 2% smolt to adult survival we come up with 1200 fish, which is not far off from some of the recent runs of summer+winter fish in both forks and the mainstem stilly combined....now lets say that before habitat destruction the smolt production was double what it is now on average, not an unreasonable assumption...120,000...now assume marine survival was 30%, which is not unreasonable for the best of years historically, considering that even recently, in the 80's we saw marine survivals of 20-25% in some regional stocks. That would result in an adult run of 36,000 back to the stilly....although not exactly 60,000, my point is that it is in the same ballpark (order of magnitude, etc)...given slight tweaking of the hypothetical numbers i used, one could easily hit 60,000 on the head, suggesting that numbers plausibly could have been that high at some points in the past, but weren't necessarily every year.