Discussion in 'Steelhead' started by Dan Page, Dec 24, 2013.
...and another sees the light. One of your best posts WW.
Unfortunate to see WW join the likes of KerryS, Chris Bellows and a few others choose this route because they simply cannot handle opposing views and believe their position on certain subjects is the correct one. There's quite a list of folks on this forum for which use of the ignore function seems like a nice way to isolate and narrow the scope of what I read and assure it aligns with my way of thinking. Seems pretty narrow-minded and petty to me... but to each their own.
Interestingly enough, during this whole debate, I have been in e-mail communication with Brett Barkdull (Skagit River WDFW Biologist) about many of the points we've been hashing over here and in prior threads. His feedback to my questions, in attempt to get further insights into this whole topic has not prompted me to change my position... and rest assured it's not because my position could never be changed on this matter.
If any of you run into WW, KerryS and the rest, tell them I hope the choir sounds much better to them not having to hear anyone singing out of harmony.
Don't give yourself too much credit for thinking you are engaging in an honest and open discussion and they aren't. People have to choose how best to make a difference and also know when it's just time to move on. It's amazing they engaged you as long as they did.
Nice to know you're in communication with Brett Barkdull. Keep in mind that his position with WDFW isn't one that allows him to put you on an ignore list.
When there starts to be a trend of people wanting to ignore you, you might want to ask if it's them or you.
Kinda like my buddy who had 12 jobs in two years. It was always someone else's fault.
Don't worry too much Freestone...it's not you.
Hey, you got a groupie. Congrats.
KerryS...that's the pot callin the kettle black...
probably no mirrors in your house I suspect.
Snappy comeback. What?
Edit: FinLuver, FSA, here is the bottom line. If you disagree with what OS is doing then don't show up at Rockport on March 29th. We will understand. But I and I believe the other supporters of OS would encourage you to show up at the Commissioner's meeting in Olympia on April 12th and let them know why you don't support Occupy Skagit's message.
We can argue about this on this forum and others until our fingers are bleeding. You will not change any of our minds or views and apparently we will not convince you to change yours.
If you are like the detractors from last year's Occupy Skagit we will not see you in Olympia. You do not believe enough in your own message to tell it to those than can actually make a difference.
Speaking of trend lines, when the one for the Skagit reverses direction, it will be something to celebrate. As for work, I've been with Boeing for 28 years...that's my own fault.
KerryS...you might want to purchase a map; it appears you are lost.
Well...he ain't the one posting on an out of state board...
Ah... the troll has arrived.
And your point is??
Announcing your own arrival is a bit egotistical.
Many of us have talked with Barkdull (kudos to him for being so available to all of us) and clearly we seem to putting different spins on things with basically the same information. Could it be that the information we are collecting reflects the questions that we ask?
In several of my conversations with Brett one the things that gives me optimism that conditions are improving on the Skagit is the recent changes in age structure of those fish returning to the rivers; that structure (especially older 3 salt and repeat spawning fish) looks much the same as it did 30 years and much different from what has been the "norm" for the last decade or two. Could it be that marine survival is finally turning back to better times.
Regarding the Skagit trend line - I assume that you are talking about the escapement trends. If one looks at the entire data base - from 1978 through 2013 that trend line looks pretty darn flat, the last couple years make a difference. In other words the trend is improving moving from a declining slope to one that is essentially flat. How many years of improvement before you would be willing to celebrate?
For me seeing escapements consistently (say a running 4 or 5 year average) over 6,000 would be cause to celebrate and time to go fishing. Remember that 6,000 goal is a conservative goal (150% of the best estimate of MSY levels).
PT, don't raise him to the level of troll. He falls much lower on the evolutionary ladder.
Finluver, if you think you can piss me off you have much to learn. Your opinion of me or of anything else doesn't amount to much more than a fart in a wind storm. Done here.
You consider the trends lines on figure 4 (page 11) and figure 9 (page 21) to be flat? Figure 9 shows a decline of approximately 30%. It would be curious to see this plot with data going back to the 50" and 60's... and what that trend line would look like.
Please go back and read my post. I said if you are looking at the escapement data (figure 9 on page 21) and you look at the full data set (1978 through 2013). The data in figure 9 does not include 2012 and 2013. Since those recent escapements have been pretty good - over 6,000 in 2012 and over 8,800 in 2013 when they are incorporated in the graph the tend line will flatten off quite a bit (which of course was my point). I have not bother to fit a line to the data by just "eyeballing" it I expect it to be pretty flat.
The trend line on figure 4 certainly is downward however since it is the raw smolt counts that are a very small portion of the probable total basin's production. However because those main stem smolt traps were design for Chinook smolt studies they are very inefficient at catching steelhead. For much the same reasons that authors of the study in the link were unable to estimate a basin total historical estimates are also unavailable. The smolt trap does provide valuable steelhead information in regard to age structure etc. of the steelhead smolts trapped but to try to extend that information beyond that is fool hardy. To try to use that information to track the population would be liking using only the escapement in a small Skagit trib to track the entire basin escapement.
All that aside I notice that you managed to side step my questions.
You guys cry foul when no data is provided. Data is provided that does not fit your desired immediate outcome and you try to explain away the reports trend line.... which, even with the 2012 and 2013 data, does make a dent in the near 30% decline the trend line shows over the 33 year period. I'd still like to see this same chart with data going back another 20 years as I suspect it would be even worse.
As to your question, we can all celebrate when the trend line heads the other way.
The escapement numbers for the Skagit (or any other river in the State) are only available since the late 1970s or later. That kind of information just was not collected prior to that time. Until that time it was commonly thought that a recreational fishery could not over fish steelhead, that a steelhead was a steelhead (no difference between hatchery and wild fish) and relatively few spawners were needed to insure future runs. We of course now know that was wrong on all three accounts; in a relevant short period of time (late 1970s/early 1980s) the whole steelhead management culture in this state was changed to one that focused on wild steelhead and their needs.
Many of us here try to make informed decisions on our stances regarding steelhead management including trying to stay current with the "data" that is available. While appreciate your posting of the Skagit smolt study it is clear that we will have to agree to disagree on the issue of the status of the Skagit wild steelhead and whether we are comfortable to what the potential risk maybe to the wild resource from any limiting (CnR season) fishing.
I disgreed with PT about Snyder Creek.
I have disagreed with Smalma about the number of early wild winter steelhead.
I have disagreed with Charles Sullivan about the impact of C&R.
I have disagreed with numerous others about banning fishing from boats.
In fact, I may be described as generally disagreeable (ask me about bucktailing).
I enjoy a good argument, but I do not deal with people who put words in my mouth and debate dishonestly. The only time I ever see your posts is when I get logged out and I felt the need to explain that it is not the disagreements, but it is entirely how you disagree that is why you get ignored.
When I go to Alaska I use bug spray, because pests that serve no purpose detract from the experience. The ignore list is DEET for internet pests who serve no purpose.