Discussion in 'Fly Fishing Forum' started by G-spot4u, Sep 27, 2013.
My joints and the view from my driver seat are about all I trust when it comes to weather.
I trust my local weatherman. He's usually no more than 2 degrees off and pretty good on the chances of precipitation.
Being a right hander, I'll be on a north facing beach with the SW wind coming over my left shoulder.
The rain and wind will be a perfect combo for bombing out some long coho casts and keeping the crowds down.
I found that to be the case this morning. Nothing like casting 100 feet over and over again. Not that the fish seemed to notice. But at least there were fish around
Who worries about the weather. If it's raining out I stay home(I don't want to melt). If it's windy I still go out. If the sun is shining I'll go out. If it's snowing I'll stay home.
We all like it when the sun is shining and it's warm out. But seasons prevent that from happening. So we do what we can with what we have.
Trust no one
The Truth Is Out There
you just need to wait for it to show up
I go with the National Weather Service for rolling the dice as to the weather predictions. They're as close as anyone.
They seem fairly sure that one heck of a storm is going to hit us this weekend. Someone is taking it seriously because I've seen piles of sand and empty bags in parking lots around town.
Guess I won't be headed out to a coastal river looking for steelhead this weekend.
I may be crazy but not that crazy.
Having said that, please look at his page carefully. There are some great links to other good tools there. Riddling the weather here is always difficult. We have seen huge storms blow in to our region, creating widespread damages, and barely a warning. And we have seen nothing at all seem to happen, while people a mile away were inundated. This is especially true out here on the Olympic Peninsula, where everything depends upon slight wind direction changes and the freezing levels in the Olympic mountains. Major storms may not have any measurable effect on the Olympic Peninsula coastal rivers, or they may flood for weeks, all because of a slight wind shift in a storm as it meets land. Now that we have the new Langley Hill Radar Station out on the coast, the forecasting has improved. And it is interesting to watch which way a storm is passing, as sometimes we get enough information from that, and the USGS Real Time river gauges, to get good fishing despite everyone to the south of us, or to the north of us, getting hammered. Learn to read the barometric readouts and graphs. Pressure changes drive the worst of this. Some of those changes can be very localized. The more that you learn about the weather and forecasting tools, and real time readouts, radar and satellites etc., the better you will be at planning your trips. I use every tool available to plan trips once the winter weather cycles resume here. One thing that I never ignore are Flood Warnings. http://olympicpeninsulaflyfishing.blogspot.com
www.wunderground.com rarely lets me down
be willing to actually head out when things do not look great forecast wise and you will learn some things (and maybe places) that will not only pay off on this trip but on future ones.
with the internet it is pretty easy to figure out what is going on. it aint rocket science.
Evan, I added that to my favorites. I now have four weather forecast links. I figure if I look at them all and go with the forecast that is the most consistent between the four, I might have some idea as to what will happen weather-wise.
Some forecasts aren't even close to the others... like WeatherSpark, which indicates a mild weekend. For me, I trust that one the least but the site does allow me to see hourly temps and the only reason I look at it.
A surgeon friend met KOMO-TVs Steve Poole at a dinner party a decade ago and basically asked him the same question. Poole replied that Seattle is/was one of the toughest places in the US to forecast weather thanks to the Olympic mountains. They split the jet stream winds and depending on their speed and direction, the 'convergance zone' where they come back together can vary by many miles.
Fast forward to last year and the installation of the new long-range weather radar station on the Washington coast (thank you Maria Cantwell!) which gives forecasters a much better look at conditions out over the ocean, dramatically improving their accuracy.
Even with the new radar, weather forecasts, especially of extreme events are still a crap shoot, just less so than earlier. A few weeks ago when Cliff Mass and others were calling for huge winds and massive rainfall, what actually happened was nothing close to their predictions.
But that aside, I've noticed that forecasts on the big 3 Seattle TV stations tend to pretty accurate. Those stations can afford their own meteorologists that interpret the raw data almost in real time. Lesser media outlets that have to rely on forecasts from the feds, tend to be less accurate because the interpretations can be up to 24 hours old.
Contrary to what many believe, meteorologists/weathermen are doing their best to provide the most accurate forecasts possible. Its actually pretty remarkable they are able to get as close as they do. We should be grateful that weather forecasts even exist.
If I'm looking for a weather forecast for a fishing destination I usually just google the city, state and add weather, then use one of the many options that come up. Most of them will show similar forecasts. NOAA also provides fairly accurate predictions. With most of these sites, they aren't going to get it perfect, but should be able to get the general weather patterns for the area your looking at.
From what I have observed you can trust them when they say it will rain ......but other than that, be it sunny and 80, or sunny and 75 I don't trust them.
Weatherman - That's the job I need. You can be consistently wrong.... and still keep your job.
Better yet become a major league baseball hitter. You can fail 70% of the time and still make the all star team