Predicting Blowouts....

Discussion in 'Fly Fishing Forum' started by homeslice, Jan 5, 2014.

  1. Salmo_g

    Salmo_g Well-Known Member

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    I predict everything on the west side is going to blow out, if it hasn't already. And I have tomorrow off work; big whoop.
     
  2. 1morecast

    1morecast Active Member

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    Bookmark this site and check it daily. After awhile you will get a feel when the river you want to fish is about to blow.
     
  3. JayB

    JayB Active Member

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    I'd suggest logging into the "American Whitewater" river/flow database for Washington, and familiarizing yourself with the color scheme. Look for rivers that are currently flowing at "below recommended" levels. As a general rule, if the color is in the "green" range (good for whitewater) you can write off good fishing, and if it's in the "Blue" category, forget about it.

    I'd venture that this is %100 accurate for smaller rivers/creeks (Icicle Creek), 90-95%% accurate for medium sized rivers (like the Middle fork of the Snoqualmie), and ~75% accurate for big rivers with a broad channel (Skykomish).

    http://www.americanwhitewater.org/content/River/state-summary/state/WA/

    If you are looking for predictions rather than actual flows, use the NOAA predictions found here:
    http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

    Once you familiarize yourself with the data, and spend some time in a particular drainage, you should get pretty good at predicting when it'll be worth heading down to the river.

    Other random observations:
    -Not all gauge readings are equal - particularly if the highest gauge in the system is still a fair ways down the river. A flow of X cfs generated by snowmelt has a way different affect on the clarity than a rain event producing the same flow. This is *especially* true for tributaries that feed into the main stem, particularly in river systems where tributaries are fed by catchments at different elevations, with different exposure to the sun, etc. If it's snowmelt time, a tributary with a low-elevation catchment can be roaring, while another tributary can have a catchment that's in still in deep-freeze and be just a trickle. The same sort of thing happens while it's raining buckets in a low elevation catchment one catchment and snowing in a higher-elevation catchment that feeds into the same river.

    -If the mainstem gauge is rising slowly, the tributaries that feed into it can be raging, and if the mainstem flows are highish but dropping, the tributaries that feed into it may have already fallen into a fishable flow.
     
  4. KevinLS

    KevinLS Active Member

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    Second
     
  5. Old Man

    Old Man Just an Old Man (NFR)

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    When I lived and fished in Washington I had most of the rivers that I fished down pat as to what was ideal and when one was blown. If you watch the rivers long enough you will learn and then you won't have to ask these stupid questions. You also have to watch the flow charts to learn it.
     
  6. Krusty

    Krusty Krusty Old Effer

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    Oh, ol' krusty still be afloat, while the Seahawks be sunk. :)
     
  7. Stonefish

    Stonefish Triploid, Humpy & Seaplane Hater

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    There are river blowouts then there are on the river blowouts.
    It has gotten pretty easy to predict the former.
    The later can be a bit more difficult.
    Either your raft, waders or rod can blow out, you blow out due to large amounts of alcohol, corndogs and mexican food from the previous night.
    Both types can be a bitch......
     
    SaltyCutt likes this.