Upcoming tides preview of rising sea levels?

Discussion in 'Saltwater' started by Jonathan Stumpf, Dec 30, 2009.

  1. Tod Fossetta

    Tod Fossetta Sorry, I'm not set up for that.

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    I'm not cranky about people doing what they can. I am cranky about being labeled and lumped in with Birthers, smokers, party of NO, and other things because I don't totally agree with the global warming argument, it's the politics of personal destruction at its best. If someone doesn't fall in lock step with The Party's beliefs, we must totally ostracize them, there can be no middle ground with those types.
    Oh, and by the way, I do enjoy a cigar and my pipe occasionally, and I do know there are possible health consequences for my actions, and I don't need government legislation to save me from my actions.
     
  2. Pete Bridge

    Pete Bridge Member

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    Just one question coming from someone who has absolutely zero loyalty or trust to any political party. If climate change and global warming/ cooling are not natural cycles, then how the hell did the planet manage to get into or even better out of ice ages throughout history? I have a hard time believing we sent a bunch of dirty smelly combustion engines back in time to create smog to warm the planet 10,000 years ago... Just a thought.
     
  3. Salty Fly

    Salty Fly Member

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    I saw a lecture on one of the local educational cable stations from a University of Washington professor. He says over the the last million years there have been consistent climate cycles of 90,000 years of ice age followed by 10,000 years of spiked warming periods. He also felt we were nearing the end of one of those 10,000 year spikes. Maybe the "scientists" are looking at this all wrong.
     
  4. jmwfish224

    jmwfish224 You know what it is!

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    There aren't any climatologists that deny that climate cycles take place. The climate change argument says that we are speeding up the natural warming trend and that, because of humans, the earth is warming faster than it should be. Understand that, yes, these trends naturally occur but extracting oil from underneath the earth's crust, burning it and emitting the results (CO2) does not, at least at the rate that we are doing it. Warming and cooling naturally takes place but we may be altering that natural cycle and warming things up faster than usual.
     
  5. Salty Fly

    Salty Fly Member

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    Really jmwfish224. I had no idea that is what all this global warming climate change thing was all about thanks for clearing that up for me. What I thought was interesting was the notiion of worrying about the shorter period of the warming cycle when it seems to me, if this professor is on to something, we might be better off looking at the other 90% of the cycle when it gets really cold.
     
  6. johnnyrockfish

    johnnyrockfish Member

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    I had something witty to say but decided against it, Nevermind.
     
  7. Rich Schager

    Rich Schager You should have been here yesterday...

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    There are tons of sites with predicted tides. I was trying to find a site showing what the actual tides ended up being - are there any?
     
  8. riseform

    riseform Active Member

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  9. Tod Fossetta

    Tod Fossetta Sorry, I'm not set up for that.

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  10. Jim Welch

    Jim Welch Veni, Vidi, Fishi OFFC

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    Should we be good stewards of the earth, you bet. Should we look for ways to create sustainability for 20 billion people on the planet. You bet. Should we find better ways to ensure our industries don't pollute the water the soil and the air, you bet.

    But don't use the Global Warming er. Climate Change as the reason why we need to hammer business and pass a foolish Cap and Tax law.


    http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/02/15/global-warming-insignificant-years-admits-uks-climate-scientist/?loomia_ow=t0:s0:a16:g2:r5:c0.091198:b30748186:z0


    ps. I was paranoid until they got me, now I am all better...
     
  11. Jonathan Stumpf

    Jonathan Stumpf I don't care how you fish

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  12. johnnyrockfish

    johnnyrockfish Member

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    Cap and trade I believe is the description, not Cap and Tax, eh? Whatever you want to call it it may not be a perfect solution but it's a start and I give the Obama admin. credit for doing something concrete rather than sit on their ass waiting for yet another (imperfect) study.

    As fishermen we're pretty good at visualizing things we can't see. Consider visualizing what 5.23 tons of Carbon Dioxide looks like. That's how much the car/truck average annual emission is, per vehicle, in the US. No perfect solution will ever be found if we don't start somewhere. As we all know, just because we can't see it doesn't mean it's not there.

    JR
     
  13. Tod Fossetta

    Tod Fossetta Sorry, I'm not set up for that.

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    The old " Steelhead Fly Fisherman Analogy" :)
     
  14. Blktailhunter

    Blktailhunter Active Member

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    Opps......

    Climate scientists withdraw journal claims of rising sea levels
    Sunday 21 February 2010 18.00 GMT

    Study claimed in 2009 that sea levels would rise by up to 82cm by the end of century – but the report's author now says true estimate is still unknown.

    Scientists have been forced to withdraw a study on projected sea level rise due to global warming after finding mistakes that undermined the findings.

    The study, published in 2009 in Nature Geoscience, one of the top journals in its field, confirmed the conclusions of the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It used data over the last 22,000 years to predict that sea level would rise by between 7cm and 82cm by the end of the century.

    At the time, Mark Siddall, from the Earth Sciences Department at the University of Bristol, said the study "strengthens the confidence with which one may interpret the IPCC results". The IPCC said that sea level would probably rise by 18cm-59cm by 2100, though stressed this was based on incomplete information about ice sheet melting and that the true rise could be higher.

    Many scientists criticised the IPCC approach as too conservative, and several papers since have suggested that sea level could rise more. Martin Vermeer of the Helsinki University of Technology, Finland and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany published a study in December that projected a rise of 0.75m to 1.9m by 2100.

    Siddall said that he did not know whether the retracted paper's estimate of sea level rise was an overestimate or an underestimate.

    Announcing the formal retraction of the paper from the journal, Siddall said: "It's one of those things that happens. People make mistakes and mistakes happen in science." He said there were two separate technical mistakes in the paper, which were pointed out by other scientists after it was published. A formal retraction was required, rather than a correction, because the errors undermined the study's conclusion.

    "Retraction is a regular part of the publication process," he said. "Science is a complicated game and there are set procedures in place that act as checks and balances."

    Nature Publishing Group, which publishes Nature Geoscience, said this was the first paper retracted from the journal since it was launched in 2007.

    The paper – entitled "Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change" – used fossil coral data and temperature records derived from ice-core measurements to reconstruct how sea level has fluctuated with temperature since the peak of the last ice age, and to project how it would rise with warming over the next few decades.

    In a statement the authors of the paper said: "Since publication of our paper we have become aware of two mistakes which impact the detailed estimation of future sea level rise. This means that we can no longer draw firm conclusions regarding 21st century sea level rise from this study without further work.

    "One mistake was a miscalculation; the other was not to allow fully for temperature change over the past 2,000 years. Because of these issues we have retracted the paper and will now invest in the further work needed to correct these mistakes."

    In the Nature Geoscience retraction, in which Siddall and his colleagues explain their errors, Vermeer and Rahmstorf are thanked for "bringing these issues to our attention".

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/21/sea-level-geoscience-retract-siddall
     
  15. Jim Welch

    Jim Welch Veni, Vidi, Fishi OFFC

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    Using scientific observations, I can safely predict that mean sea levels will be raising between -1.5 meters to +1.5 meters or more during the next 20 years. During that time, Seattle can expect a total of 18,840 mm of rain.

    We really need to do something about it... like catch fish.