2018 Preseason 1 Report

#3
“Because Council-area fishery impacts to Puget Sound Chinook stocks are minor, ocean regulations are not generally used to manage these stocks”
“There were no mark selective fisheries for Chinook in Council waters in 2016 and 2017.”
All Chinook Ocean Troll fisheries North of Cape of Cape Falcon require a 28” minimum size. In Puget Sound, the majority of fish do not reach this size. So they have been selectively harvesting only our largest fish for years.
In the last two years they have been able to selectively harvest our largest wild Chinook Salmon.
 

TJ Fisher

Active Member
#4
Thanks for posting this Bob.

Some of the coho numbers I'm not quite understanding.

"Snohomish
Predictor Description The natural forecast is based on production of 2017 out-migrant smolts estimated from rotary screwtraps in the Skykomish and Snoqualmie rivers and a 4.5 prcent marine survival. Smolt production for the Snohomish system in 2017 was set conservatively at the lower bound of the 95precent CI estimate for both the Skykomish and the Snoqualmie, for a total watershed production of 1,465,000 smolts."

So out of the total smolts only 4.5% are expected to survive? (65,925 fish will survive from 2017) I understand this part, although the survival rate seems low to me but I don't fully understand what these fish go through over the 3 years in the ocean.

Now where I get lost.

"Stock Forecasts and Status The 2018 Snohomish natural ocean age-3 abundance forecast is 65,925, compared to the 2017 preseason forecast of 107,325."

So the abundance forecast is based off the previous years smolts that are expected to survive, which really we wouldn't see returning until 2020?
 

TJ Fisher

Active Member
#5
“Because Council-area fishery impacts to Puget Sound Chinook stocks are minor, ocean regulations are not generally used to manage these stocks”
“There were no mark selective fisheries for Chinook in Council waters in 2016 and 2017.”
All Chinook Ocean Troll fisheries North of Cape of Cape Falcon require a 28” minimum size. In Puget Sound, the majority of fish do not reach this size. So they have been selectively harvesting only our largest fish for years.
In the last two years they have been able to selectively harvest our largest wild Chinook Salmon.
I asked a similar question previously and you can find the answer here.

http://www.washingtonflyfishing.com/forum/threads/2018-salmon-regulation-process-underway.138160/
 

Stonefish

Triploid, Humpy & Seaplane Hater
#6
TJ,
Coho have a three year life cycle.
The fish returning this year are from fish that spawned in the fall 2015.
They would have emerged from the gravel in the spring of 2016 and spend about a year in freshwater.
They then would migrate out of the rivers a year later, so the spring of 2017 and return to spawn in the fall of 2018.
They don't spend three years in the salt, which is we're you are getting confused.
The offspring of fish that spawned last fall will be returning in 2020.
Hope this helps.
SF
 

Stonefish

Triploid, Humpy & Seaplane Hater
#8
If you think a 4.5% coho return is bad, take a look at some of the hatchery steelhead returns.
They are beyond pathetic....
SF
 

TJ Fisher

Active Member
#9
I've looked briefly, all the anadromous fish of PS with the exception of SRC seem to be rapidly dieing in large numbers.

Since the change of ownership at work, I(we) can now present things to the corporate office to receive donations & support so I'm searching for things (not advocacy groups) that I can present to them. Mainly research / study and restoration efforts like the adopt a steelhead smolt you posted about. It may be a small thing but I feel that every little thing helps.
 

Bob Smith

Active Member
#10
I'm not sure about PS coho but when you add in natural mortality, straying and other factors to an age 3 Klamath River fall Chinook ocean abundance forecast, that number gets reduced by about half. This is prior to adding recreational, commercial and tribal fisheries.
 

Smalma

Active Member
#11
TJ -

The projected 4.5 smolt to adult survival for the Snohomish is a low value. Over the last 50 years that value has ranged from less than 2% to as much as 30%; illustrates how important ocean conditions can be. Until last decade or so the average was around 15%. Up until recently the Snohomish will coho was probably the most robust population in the lower 48 states. Before the population crash in 2014 the average Snohomish wild coho escapement this century (2000 to 2013) was 125,000 with the escapement exceeding 1/4 million twice.

SF -
I did read that section on the coho carefully and a couple things of concern jumped out. "Strait of Juan de Fuca and Snohomish were found to meet the criteria for being classified as over fished....". In addition the Stillaguamish were right on the line of also being classified as over fished. Suspect/hope the co-managers will approach this years manage to assure that escapements will be large enough to move the average above that over fished line. In addition is see that the run forecast for the Strait Juan de Fuca coho is below the critical level meaning that Southern United States exploitation rate will have to be below 9%; similar to what we saw last year because of the Stillaguamish. It will be interesting to see how MA 9 coho season reflects management needs for the Strait's coho.

Also noticed that the South Sound forecast is pretty low; wonder if the State will finally bite the bullet and require wild coho releases.

As what has become the norm there appears to be significant issues for discussion during NOF.

Curt
 

TJ Fisher

Active Member
#12
Thank you for the info Curt.

Is it mainly climate (warmer waters) that are drastically increasing the mortality or are there other major factors that they look at such as food sources, ocean polution, and habitat degradation, and predation?
 

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