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El Niño + Pacific Ocean Blob

4K views 60 replies 22 participants last post by  blackbird 
#1 ·
Anyone else nervous about the El Niño and Pacific Ocean blob predictions forecasted for 2018/2019? Could it be the one-two punch combo that will deceimate our anadromous fish?
 
#4 · (Edited)
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2018-enso-update-trick-or-treat

https://www.google.com/amp/s/alaska...m/2018/11/06/record-north-pacific-warmth/amp/

So to summarize, we've seen a dramatic return to the positive NPM phase in recent months, but so far the pattern of unusual warmth is not particularly "blob"-like, and in fact the subsurface data points to the northwestern North Pacific as the focus of the current "marine heatwave".

The other side of the Pacific (Russia - Japan) has more of a warm water blob concern than we do in the Pacific Northwest. The El Nino will be mild compared to January 2016.
 
#5 ·
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/october-2018-enso-update-trick-or-treat

https://www.google.com/amp/s/alaska...m/2018/11/06/record-north-pacific-warmth/amp/

So to summarize, we've seen a dramatic return to the positive NPM phase in recent months, but so far the pattern of unusual warmth is not particularly "blob"-like, and in fact the subsurface data points to the northwestern North Pacific as the focus of the current "marine heatwave".

The other side of the Pacific (Russia - Japan) has more of a warm water blob concern than we do in the Pacific Northwest. The El Nino will be mid compared to January 2016.
Thanks! Maybe I'll be able to sleep now. I've read that our PNW steelhead frequent waters off Russia and Japan. Wonder how that'll play out??
 
#11 ·
What worries me is that El Nino appears to be the emerging new norm, and conditions suitable for salmonids are now less common than poor conditions. We're seeing significant hypoxia events off our coast every year in most of the 2000s. Those have occurred throughout recorded history, but only rarely prior to the current millennium.

Perhaps, in time, this trend will shift back in a positive direction. In the meantime, now is the time to cut back on harvest quotas. If salmonids are to survive what is almost certainly coming at them for the foreseeable future, we're going to have to stop assuming there is such a thing as a "harvestable surplus." A new paradigm is needed; one that assures planned escapements prior to authorizing harvest (by any user group). Most likely, escapement goals also need to be increased, to account for the poor survival rates fish are experiencing in the ocean.

Of course, even if the political will to increase escapements existed, the habitat might not be able to produce the needed "surplus" smolts. On balance, despite some great habitat work being done, the changing climate is likely doing more to degrade the overall habitat (warmer, lower water with lower levels of nutrients) than our work is doing to restore it.

Not looking good.
 
#13 ·
What worries me is that El Nino appears to be the emerging new norm, and conditions suitable for salmonids are now less common than poor conditions. We're seeing significant hypoxia events off our coast every year in most of the 2000s. Those have occurred throughout recorded history, but only rarely prior to the current millennium.

Perhaps, in time, this trend will shift back in a positive direction. In the meantime, now is the time to cut back on harvest quotas. If salmonids are to survive what is almost certainly coming at them for the foreseeable future, we're going to have to stop assuming there is such a thing as a "harvestable surplus." A new paradigm is needed; one that assures planned escapements prior to authorizing harvest (by any user group). Most likely, escapement goals also need to be increased, to account for the poor survival rates fish are experiencing in the ocean.

Of course, even if the political will to increase escapements existed, the habitat might not be able to produce the needed "surplus" smolts. On balance, despite some great habitat work being done, the changing climate is likely doing more to degrade the overall habitat (warmer, lower water with lower levels of nutrients) than our work is doing to restore it.

Not looking good.
And when you say salmonids, I'm assuming you're referring to the anadromous kind. I don't think we're seeing the same level of declines in riverine/lacustrine salmonid populations. Also, I totally agree with you about harvest numbers in addition to concerns around "the new normal." The frequency, intensity and magnitude of hypoxia zones is alarming. Those will most definitely impact species like chinook that tend to stay close to the shelves, whereas steelhead move way offshore, migrating across the Pacific Ocean in some cases. I'm not optimistic...
 
#14 ·
What worries me is that El Nino appears to be the emerging new norm, and conditions suitable for salmonids are now less common than poor conditions. We're seeing significant hypoxia events off our coast every year in most of the 2000s. Those have occurred throughout recorded history, but only rarely prior to the current millennium.

Perhaps, in time, this trend will shift back in a positive direction. In the meantime, now is the time to cut back on harvest quotas. If salmonids are to survive what is almost certainly coming at them for the foreseeable future, we're going to have to stop assuming there is such a thing as a "harvestable surplus." A new paradigm is needed; one that assures planned escapements prior to authorizing harvest (by any user group). Most likely, escapement goals also need to be increased, to account for the poor survival rates fish are experiencing in the ocean.

Of course, even if the political will to increase escapements existed, the habitat might not be able to produce the needed "surplus" smolts. On balance, despite some great habitat work being done, the changing climate is likely doing more to degrade the overall habitat (warmer, lower water with lower levels of nutrients) than our work is doing to restore it.

Not looking good.
Removal of man...is the "shift back in a positive direction"
Pavin' paradise, stickin' a straw in the ground or crick, nettin' anything and everything...
Man...

And no, I do not subscribe to man-made caused global warming.
I do however, subscribe to man bein' likened to locust.
 
#22 ·
"Methane emissions have been rising sharply since 2006. Different research teams have produced viable estimates for two known sources of the increase: emissions from the oil and gas industry, and microbial production in wet tropical environments like marshes and rice paddies. But when these estimates were added to estimates of other sources, the sum was considerably more than the observed increase. In fact, each new estimate was large enough to explain the whole increase by itself. "

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/nasa-led-study-solves-a-methane-puzzle
 
#53 ·
I should head out for a walk. Its sunny and clear, hitting mid-40s already. Thick frost this morning, but from inside my warm house, it looks like a sunny spring day out there! A glance at the 5-day forecast shows a threat of snow here mid-week, but otherwise...sunny with cold mornings and warming afternoons!
This is unreal! Somebody please slap me and wake me up!
 
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