Coronavirus Degrees of separation

Creatch'r

Tin Foil Time
"In media we trust" View attachment 232369
"... the onset of a global pandemic and the ensuing carnage that it has wrought around the United States isn't sensational enough..."


One should be wary of news that pathologically ruminates for days on a 20 second soundbite that had subsequently been qualified or clarified.

We can expect the numbers to continue to be presented by the media in the most sensational way. Here is a qualitative chronology of the angles taken by the media: Let's first begin by applying simplistic math and unrealistic assumptions to arrive at a forecasted US death total in the millions and we'll appeal to authority (we can find an "expert" somewhere) for improved believability. Wait, with the passage of a few weeks, that trajectory is not being observed, so let's look at deaths as a percentage of confirmed patients since that's really distorted to the high side and supports a high mortality rate estimate. Wait, we're beginning to test over 100,000 patients per day, confirming thousands of cases, and making those mortality rates look much lower, so let's just look at the climbing nominal daily death total - at least that can now be sensationalized.

The media has had to react and pivot to maximize public anxiety as much as officials and healthcare workers have had to pivot and react with their meaningful efforts to address stress points never before tested. I'm not sure what negative narrative will be adopted once we're testing over 250,000/day and compare favorably in terms of the percentage metric you now want to place out front, but I have faith in media script writers to come up with something sensational.

We're accelerating the deployment of necessary resources and adopting precautionary measures on a scale not ever before observed within this country. We're identifying system, policy, and supply chain vulnerabilities at all levels that are being permanently addressed. The best estimate on US mortality base case is now ~85,000 (with a +/- 40,000 range). That current base case is about 25% higher mortality than a very bad flu season. No, it's not the flu, and it's not Ebola either. We've had to hustle and embrace some pretty draconian measures just in order to keep that mortality expectation down on the same level as a severe flu season, but we're doing it, and we'll emerge much stronger, wearing much less risk in the event of a similar future outbreak. Frankly, as bad as this virus is, I'm thankful it's not more pernicious.

I'm also thankful this is a "war" on a virus, and most of us are at home quarantining. I couldn't imagine this being a kinetic war lying in a trench trying to advance our position when many of my brothers seem more focused on bitching and moaning about last week's battle and about their entitlement to perfect information (which hasn't been available to anyone the first few months of this outbreak) in the fog of a war where knowledge and understanding is evolving dramatically on a weekly if not daily basis.

Thank you to all medical staff, grocery store employees, and other critical infrastructure employees on the front lines.
Nice to read something from someone without a swollen amygdala. Cheers.
 

doublebluff

Go Beavs
I can't tell for sure if people are challenging Trevor Bedford in above posts, but his work is respected and well-defended. His twitter posts are good sources of information.
 

Thrasybulus

I practice social distancing
The Second Coming

BY WILLIAM BUTLER YEATS

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
 
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Tmik

Active Member
WFF Supporter
Maybe more in line with the intent of this thread, my cousins household in MA is currently dealing with the virus.

Their teenage daughter was in Bolivia when everything went down and couldn't get back home until last Wednesday. Turns out she brought it back through travel.

The daughter had fairly mild symptoms in line with most reports on children, the son hasnt shown any symptoms, but the mother got it hard. She is upper 40's and active in good shape.

She started with a sore throat and progressed in to a cough then fever. Then shortness of breath hit hard. She could barely walk twenty feet to their barn and couldn't make it back without a long sit down rest. The daughter came home on Wednesday and the mother was in that state by Saturday.

She has a really good doctor that is a part of the MA state task force, and he is advising her remotely for most of the time. Her blood oxygen (I think the metric they said) was under 90 which typically advises hospitalization, but there wasn't any room locally so the doctor advised she wait. She is now at 95 and hopefully out of the emergency zone. The husband has asthma and has been extremely cautious, but he is a concern right now.

Even though the doctor was certain the family had it, they couldn't spare any tests as it was ramping up. I still haven't determined what allowed them to be tested (or if they actually officially were).

My wife and I have been treating this seriously and haven't seen anyone since we flew back in to the US the second week of March, but having family deal with it definitely solidifies our resolve on remaining isolated. I have too many older relatives and friends in my life to be willing to risk spreading it.
 

Rock Creek Fan

Active Member
I hope this thread get's locked down or deleted! @Chris Scoones @b_illymac

My 2 cents! Time to move on, imho!
I think that there is some valuable information and links to good sources in this thread so I hope it does not get locked down or deleted. I feel certain users should be parked since they are making this thread into personal attacks out of ignorance.
 

flybill

Purveyor of fine hackle, wine & cigars!
Maybe more in line with the intent of this thread, my cousins household in MA is currently dealing with the virus.

Their teenage daughter was in Bolivia when everything went down and couldn't get back home until last Wednesday. Turns out she brought it back through travel.

The daughter had fairly mild symptoms in line with most reports on children, the son hasnt shown any symptoms, but the mother got it hard. She is upper 40's and active in good shape.

She started with a sore throat and progressed in to a cough then fever. Then shortness of breath hit hard. She could barely walk twenty feet to their barn and couldn't make it back without a long sit down rest. The daughter came home on Wednesday and the mother was in that state by Saturday.

She has a really good doctor that is a part of the MA state task force, and he is advising her remotely for most of the time. Her blood oxygen (I think the metric they said) was under 90 which typically advises hospitalization, but there wasn't any room locally so the doctor advised she wait. She is now at 95 and hopefully out of the emergency zone. The husband has asthma and has been extremely cautious, but he is a concern right now.

Even though the doctor was certain the family had it, they couldn't spare any tests as it was ramping up. I still haven't determined what allowed them to be tested (or if they actually officially were).

My wife and I have been treating this seriously and haven't seen anyone since we flew back in to the US the second week of March, but having family deal with it definitely solidifies our resolve on remaining isolated. I have too many older relatives and friends in my life to be willing to risk spreading it.
Best wishes for you and your family!
 

jamma

Active Member
How many will this virus kill Jamma? We can look at alcohol related deaths, car accident data and so on and even with the most basic level of statistics take a reasonable guess how many will die in the next year.

Do you know where this will top? View attachment 231258
Good question. The answer is nobody knows. The thing the virus had going for it was firstly, no one knew it existed, secondly, it could be contagious without visible symptoms and finally, it fired up during flu season masking it's arrival. That's a pretty serious trifecta of worst possible conditions for unsuspected transmission as I am sure you are aware.
But, looking at how the deaths by age shakes out, reveals some interesting results. If you are below the age of 50, you have a .2% chance of dying from CV, which drops to zero if you are under the age of 9, unlike influenza. Which begs the question, was it the CV that killed you or a compromised immune system?
Who knows, by this time next year, we could have a cure or vaccine and this outbreak will just be a bad memory.
And just so you don't think I am isolated from what's going on, I had a relative in the last two weeks who came close to dying when a case of the flu compromised an underlying condition. One day he was fine, two days later he was fighting for his life.
 

Old406Kid

Active Member
Some back and forth here but I have to ask if it's wiser to poo poo this or too big of a sacrifice to err on the side of caution?
I'll take the latter.
 

Old406Kid

Active Member
Okay, I told my wife when this started that sooner or later it would lead to civil unrest, rioting, and looting.
I just watched a video of merchants in Chicago boarding up their stores.

Stay safe and respectful my friends!
 

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