Tin Foil Time
Nice to read something from someone without a swollen amygdala. Cheers."In media we trust" View attachment 232369
"... the onset of a global pandemic and the ensuing carnage that it has wrought around the United States isn't sensational enough..."
"It’s completely irresponsible for CBS News to use footage from an Italian Hospital when talking about the outbreak in New York City."www.zerohedge.com
One should be wary of news that pathologically ruminates for days on a 20 second soundbite that had subsequently been qualified or clarified.
We can expect the numbers to continue to be presented by the media in the most sensational way. Here is a qualitative chronology of the angles taken by the media: Let's first begin by applying simplistic math and unrealistic assumptions to arrive at a forecasted US death total in the millions and we'll appeal to authority (we can find an "expert" somewhere) for improved believability. Wait, with the passage of a few weeks, that trajectory is not being observed, so let's look at deaths as a percentage of confirmed patients since that's really distorted to the high side and supports a high mortality rate estimate. Wait, we're beginning to test over 100,000 patients per day, confirming thousands of cases, and making those mortality rates look much lower, so let's just look at the climbing nominal daily death total - at least that can now be sensationalized.
The media has had to react and pivot to maximize public anxiety as much as officials and healthcare workers have had to pivot and react with their meaningful efforts to address stress points never before tested. I'm not sure what negative narrative will be adopted once we're testing over 250,000/day and compare favorably in terms of the percentage metric you now want to place out front, but I have faith in media script writers to come up with something sensational.
We're accelerating the deployment of necessary resources and adopting precautionary measures on a scale not ever before observed within this country. We're identifying system, policy, and supply chain vulnerabilities at all levels that are being permanently addressed. The best estimate on US mortality base case is now ~85,000 (with a +/- 40,000 range). That current base case is about 25% higher mortality than a very bad flu season. No, it's not the flu, and it's not Ebola either. We've had to hustle and embrace some pretty draconian measures just in order to keep that mortality expectation down on the same level as a severe flu season, but we're doing it, and we'll emerge much stronger, wearing much less risk in the event of a similar future outbreak. Frankly, as bad as this virus is, I'm thankful it's not more pernicious.
I'm also thankful this is a "war" on a virus, and most of us are at home quarantining. I couldn't imagine this being a kinetic war lying in a trench trying to advance our position when many of my brothers seem more focused on bitching and moaning about last week's battle and about their entitlement to perfect information (which hasn't been available to anyone the first few months of this outbreak) in the fog of a war where knowledge and understanding is evolving dramatically on a weekly if not daily basis.
Thank you to all medical staff, grocery store employees, and other critical infrastructure employees on the front lines.