The New Covid Numbers

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dflett68

WFF Supporter
charts i've seen are made by much more skilled and expert folks than me, but don't seem to answer the question i have. i pulled the raw data from here: https://covidtracking.com/data/api, and then did a simple pivot by state for just new cases and new deaths. i located recent death spikes in nevada and south carolina to see what their case and death trends were leading up to the spike in deaths. both were trending down in deaths going into a rise in cases around weeks 24/25. at that point (red star) they looked just like we look now, if not better. again, deaths trending flat to down, cases rising. sounds promising. but for them, what followed within 1-3 weeks were drastic spikes in deaths.

am i oversimplifying this? i realize i may be, but i wanted to frame the question visually that i asked earlier in the thread: why shouldn't we be expecting a serious spike in deaths in the next 1-3 weeks? i'm not arguing the point, just asking anyone who might understand the data better than i can as a layperson.

covid.png
 

surfnfish

Kicked
Headlines all over the country of folks young and old who were given hydroxychloroquine and died.

"At one nursing home 14 residents whose deaths were tied to covid-19 were never actually tested for the infection. Of those, 11 had been given hydroxychloroquine before they died under orders of the residence manger over the objections of the nurses working there."

Under the Trump cult truth has given way to a barrage of lies, science facts are 'fake news', everything a misdirection ploy to take attention away from the greatest malfeasance and incompetance of leadership in our nations history.

That sound you hear is the beginning death throes of the Republican party whose Faustian deal with the cult leader bought them massive tax breaks and a Supreme Court majority they have been desperate for, and now it will cost them the future of their party.
 

b_illymac

Soap Lake Posse
WFF Moderator
Headlines all over the country of folks young and old who were given hydroxychloroquine and died.

"At one nursing home 14 residents whose deaths were tied to covid-19 were never actually tested for the infection. Of those, 11 had been given hydroxychloroquine before they died under orders of the residence manger over the objections of the nurses working there."

Under the Trump cult truth has given way to a barrage of lies, science facts are 'fake news', everything a misdirection ploy to take attention away from the greatest malfeasance and incompetance of leadership in our nations history.

That sound you hear is the beginning death throes of the Republican party whose Faustian deal with the cult leader bought them massive tax breaks and a Supreme Court majority they have been desperate for, and now it will cost them the future of their party.
Nurses don't give medication's based on "resident managers." You have to have a doctor's orders. That story smells fishy...
 

Dave Boyle

Active Member
Nurses don't give medication's based on "resident managers." You have to have a doctor's orders. That story smells fishy...
Billy is 100% correct, the link below has the story. It involves a clinician in a TX nursing home running an 'observational' study, it's an interesting read. It's not noted but alluded too, the fact that their is no or limited informed consent to take part in this or I doubt ethical review and approval of the study. This is a series of fundamental human rights violations but who cares...

I'm sure the litigation lawyers are circling upon reading the news report. It is an incredibly, no, actually beyond stupid thing to do and the home/doctor will very likely be sued out of sight when it goes wrong.

It is NPR though, so fake to some. There must be a counterpoint link re the REAL NEWS field, maybe zen can share, his mate probably writes a good one can share it.

Dave

 

Rocking Chair Fan

No more hot spotting
@dflett68 It is true that as the number of new cases rise so do the numbers of deaths. But the number of hospitalizations and number of deaths may be a better comparison because the higher number of asymptomatic/mild cases being found during testing. Nature of the virus.

Also treatments are getting better and better all the time since more information is known/shared about the virus. So the 1-3 weeks after a spike in new hospitalization cases occurs, it may be longer before a death spike occurs. Also survivability appears to be increasing also.
 

doublebluff

Go Beavs
So much interesting stuff here. Lots of great and challenging issues to think about and discuss. Patient care strategies are getting better and, because more testing is available, more asymptomatic people are getting tested. Both will lead to lower death/morbidity rates. That's all good. The recent increases all over the place... what a surprise. This is an emotionless beast we are dealing with that simply will spread when unprotected people get together, especially in enclosed spaces. It is good to see people like the gov of Texas realizing this. Our president remains a buffoon as it relates to the covid challenge, but that is no surprise either. Everything Fauci says remains correct, and I would like to hear from the Fauci-haters and the people who talked about "sheeple" as it relates to mask wearers, etc. Those perspectives were really naive, I think. Who knows if a vaccine will work- it is important to understand that there are no real data anywhere that demonstrate a vaccine will actually be protective. But with the new drugs, and hopefully with vaccines and herd immunity, I am cautiously optimistic we will be past this in four to six more months. Hope springs eternal!
 

dflett68

WFF Supporter
@dflett68 It is true that as the number of new cases rise so do the numbers of deaths. But the number of hospitalizations and number of deaths may be a better comparison because the higher number of asymptomatic/mild cases being found during testing. Nature of the virus.

Also treatments are getting better and better all the time since more information is known/shared about the virus. So the 1-3 weeks after a spike in new hospitalization cases occurs, it may be longer before a death spike occurs. Also survivability appears to be increasing also.
other's noted this a little earlier, but how does that mesh with the very recent death spikes in those two states? these spikes showed up just a week ago - why weren't their spikes softened/mitigated by the factors you mention? i do have the other metric you mentioned also so i'll swap it into the pivot and see what it shows. thanks for the reply.
 
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