NFR Do Yourself a Favor.

[Clarkman]

For someone who claims not to care, he (or she) sure seems to care...

 

[long_rod_silvers]

Attack the argument, not the person.

Unless we are talking about TonyPro or Mike Melfa....

I kid, I kid.

 

[Sportsman]

1) I'm not here seeking your validation, I could care less about your assessment of anyone's credibility.

2) I'm not and have not argued what is or isn't the prevailing scientific opinion on COVID transmission.

3) I haven't offered misinterpretations of a couple of reports because I've only addressed a single report - the report that was initially posted as "the evidence for asymptomatic transmission".

4) The report dealt with 2 variables - infectious periods and transmission proportions from individuals who never had COVID symptoms. They used a fixed 10 days for the infectious period. They varied the values for the transmission proportions.

5) The study says - "Uncertainty also remains about the proportion of individuals with infection who are never symptomatic (pns) and the relative contribution of these infections to transmission"

6) The study says - "Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of both presymptomatic and never symptomatic transmission."

7) The study says - "Therefore, these results lack quantitative precision, but they demonstrate the qualitative roles of these 2 components and show that across broad ranges of possible assumptions, the finding that asymptomatic transmission is a critical component of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics remains constant."

So what this says is that IF their assumptions are true in a range of the assumptive values, that asymptomatic transmission cannot be ignored and must be part of the responsive strategy.

8) The study conclusion is - " In the absence of effective and widespread use of therapeutics or vaccines that can shorten or eliminate infectivity, successful control of SARS-CoV-2 cannot rely solely on identifying and isolating symptomatic cases"

9) None of this supports "the evidence for asymptomatic transmission gets stronger and stronger". The study doesn't even come close to making this claim.

10) My words of the results of this study are - if, the 10 day infectious period is accurate, and if our assumptions of transmission proportions are anywhere near true, then you must deal with the asymptomatic transmission of COVID.


Now you can call me whatever you want, because like I said already, I could care less about your opinion of me. I joined this forum to talk fly fishing because I think fly fishing is theraputic and in the current environment the more people can do to keep their sanity the better. But if you think that I'm going to abstain from commenting on someones post that says here's the evidence for asymptomatic transmission when it clearly isn't evidence for asymptomatic transmission, I'm not going to curb my tongue just so that I can be in your good graces.

So you joined the forum to talk about fly fishing? Looking at all of your posts, one might confuse you with a troll that has never picked up a fly 'pole' in their life??!!

 

[jccady]

So you joined the forum to talk about fly fishing? Looking at all of your posts, one might confuse you with a troll that has never picked up a fly 'pole' in their life??!!

Oh well let me ask your permission from now on before I post to existing thread. Or maybe the mistake was I didn't pull mine out to compare to it yours to in order to prove my worthiness before I'm allowed to post?

 

[Sportsman]

Crybaby Troll.

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

Not helpful, can we stay on topic - or perhaps it has run its course.

Cheers

 

[Brian Miller]

Lots of data to the effect that other airborne respiratory infections are now way down as a result of so many people wearing masks. Silver lining...

This in todays Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/12/covid-shutdowns-viruses/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2e6c1de%2F5ffdda469d2fda0efbabeabc%2F596b79049bbc0f403f9182a3%2F24%2F70%2F5ffdda469d2fda0efbabeabc

And this great graphical representation:

Syndromic Trends

"As welcome as the absence of these other viruses is during a pandemic, epidemiologists say they see a potentially dangerous consequence after coronavirus cases eventually decline — a rebound that could be frightfully large given the relaxation of social distancing and lowered immunity to other pathogens.
“The best analogy is to a forest fire,” said Bryan Grenfell, an epidemiologist and population biologist at Princeton. “For the fire to spread, it needs to have unburned wood. For epidemics to spread, they require people who haven’t previously been infected. So if people don’t get infected this year by these viruses, they likely will at some point later on.”

Silver lining...
Is silver overvalued?

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

"As welcome as the absence of these other viruses is during a pandemic, epidemiologists say they see a potentially dangerous consequence after coronavirus cases eventually decline — a rebound that could be frightfully large given the relaxation of social distancing and lowered immunity to other pathogens.
“The best analogy is to a forest fire,” said Bryan Grenfell, an epidemiologist and population biologist at Princeton. “For the fire to spread, it needs to have unburned wood. For epidemics to spread, they require people who haven’t previously been infected. So if people don’t get infected this year by these viruses, they likely will at some point later on.”

Silver lining...
Is silver overvalued?

Hence, the need for effective and safe vaccines, which from all the data I have seen, we have.

Cheers

 

[Gary Knowels]

This in todays Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/12/covid-shutdowns-viruses/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2e6c1de%2F5ffdda469d2fda0efbabeabc%2F596b79049bbc0f403f9182a3%2F24%2F70%2F5ffdda469d2fda0efbabeabc

And this great graphical representation:

Syndromic Trends

Perhaps the US will take this evidence with that of many asian countries that have experienced greater SARS threats in the past and implement routine precautions like: regular temperature checks and not permitting entry to businesses/offices/schools to those with fever, wearing a mask when we feel ill (to protect others), washing hands more frequently, staying home when ill (our economic structure makes this difficult/impossible for many), etc.

 

[Brian Miller]

Hence, the need for effective and safe vaccines, which from all the data I have seen, we have.

Cheers

I do get a flu shot every year, got my PPSV23 and PCV13 shots, and the Shingrix duo (the 2nd shot kicked my ass, but it's better than shingles) so I am not anti-vax. Nor am I comparing the rates of transmission or lethality of these other illnesses to COVID.

We have?

From the WP article:
"Another virus, enterovirus D68 — linked to a polio-like paralysis seen mostly in children — has likewise been greatly reduced. As recently as August, CDC officials warned doctors and parents to be on the lookout for cases of the polio-like condition, known as acute flaccid myelitis. Outbreaks of the condition have peaked in a peculiar every-other-year cycle for six years, with 120 cases across the United States in 2014, 153 in 2016, and 240 in 2018. But in 2020, the CDC confirmed just 29 cases."

"There is no vaccine against enterovirus D68 . However, the following steps may help protect your child and prevent the spread of infection: Wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Avoid touching your eyes, mouth and nose." (Mayo Clinic)
------------------------------------------------------------
Other viruses mentioned in the article

"Currently, there is no vaccine to protect you against infection caused by human parainfluenza viruses (HPIV). However, researchers are trying to develop vaccines." (Pub Med.gov)

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes infections of the lungs and respiratory tract. It's so common that most children have been infected with the virus by age 2. Respiratory syncytial (sin-SISH-ul) virus can also infect adults. "There is no vaccine for RSV. But a medication called palivizumab may prevent RSV infections and protect high-risk babies from serious complications of RSV infection." (Mayo Clinic)

Human metapneumovirus "Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) was first described in 2001 and has quickly become recognized as an important cause of respiratory tract disease worldwide, especially in the pediatric population. A vaccine against HMPV is required to prevent severe disease associated with infection in infancy. [no vaccine currently available...] (Pub Med)

etc. etc.

It all reminds me of whack a mole or the effort to reduce-eliminate Brazilian elodea in Lone Lake (this is a fishing website ).

 

[Stonefish]

Just some other news regarding the vaccines or possible coming vaccines.
SF

Moderna says COVID-19 vaccine immunity to stay at least a year

Immunity from Moderna Inc's COVID-19 vaccine should last at least a year, the company said on Monday at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare conference.

www.reuters.com

Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 Vaccine Could Alter the Course of the Pandemic. Investors Will Soon Know if It Works.

CEO Alex Gorsky said the company is in the “final stages” of analyzing its efficacy.

www.barrons.com

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

I do get a flu shot every year, got my PPSV23 and PCV13 shots, and the Shingrix duo (the 2nd shot kicked my ass, but it's better than shingles) so I am not anti-vax. Nor am I comparing the rates of transmission or lethality of these other illnesses to COVID.

We have?

From the WP article:
"Another virus, enterovirus D68 — linked to a polio-like paralysis seen mostly in children — has likewise been greatly reduced. As recently as August, CDC officials warned doctors and parents to be on the lookout for cases of the polio-like condition, known as acute flaccid myelitis. Outbreaks of the condition have peaked in a peculiar every-other-year cycle for six years, with 120 cases across the United States in 2014, 153 in 2016, and 240 in 2018. But in 2020, the CDC confirmed just 29 cases."

"There is no vaccine against enterovirus D68 . However, the following steps may help protect your child and prevent the spread of infection: Wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Avoid touching your eyes, mouth and nose." (Mayo Clinic)
------------------------------------------------------------
Other viruses mentioned in the article

"Currently, there is no vaccine to protect you against infection caused by human parainfluenza viruses (HPIV). However, researchers are trying to develop vaccines." (Pub Med.gov)

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes infections of the lungs and respiratory tract. It's so common that most children have been infected with the virus by age 2. Respiratory syncytial (sin-SISH-ul) virus can also infect adults. "There is no vaccine for RSV. But a medication called palivizumab may prevent RSV infections and protect high-risk babies from serious complications of RSV infection." (Mayo Clinic)

Human metapneumovirus "Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) was first described in 2001 and has quickly become recognized as an important cause of respiratory tract disease worldwide, especially in the pediatric population. A vaccine against HMPV is required to prevent severe disease associated with infection in infancy. [no vaccine currently available...] (Pub Med)

etc. etc.

It all reminds me of whack a mole or the effort to reduce-eliminate Brazilian elodea in Lone Lake (this is a fishing website ).

My apologies, I was referring to the SARS-COV-2 vaccines.

 

[Sportsman]

Not helpful, can we stay on topic - or perhaps it has run its course.

Cheers

Apologies. It's not and will miss your excellent info. I'll admit that I'm a prick when we are swamped with anti anything neaderthals. Started with spey spaz and that virus/spawn gave us Dr. Hairball, shit bird, and jc. There are others of course. I suspect they really are the same person...or related.

 

[Canuck from Kansas]

Apologies. It's not and will miss your excellent info. I'll admit that I'm a prick when we are swamped with anti anything neaderthals. Started with spey spaz and that virus/spawn gave us Dr. Hairball, shit bird, and jc. There are others of course. I suspect they really are the same person...or related.

I hear ya, and thanks. Hopefully we are back on track.

Cheers

 

[jwg]

So, imagine a football team wins a game through yardage gained running. Someone concludes, “the running game wins!”

Now imagine another team wins by their passing skills. Someone concludes, “ the passing game wins!”

Are these two conclusions (I.e. quotes taken out of context) in conflict?

In reality each winning team faced a different set of players and a different defense. Teams seek to win by whatever means works relative to the defenses they face.

J