NOF 2021

Smalma

Active Member
Took a quick look at the forecasts- first blush the news is mixed.

yes there will be pinks and should be in abundances to allow fishing. PS forecast is 2.9 million however approximately 1/2 will be returning to the Skagit (925K) and Snohomish (555K).

Chum forecasts continue to be poor and the management of their fisheries will a big NOF issue (primarily a commercial issue).

PS sockeye forecasts are poor and pending some unexpected good news with a Skagit in-season update unlikely there will be any seasons.

Coho forecasts are up about 120% from 2020 with both hatchery and wild numbers up from last year. The bad news the 2020 wild escapement on the Snohomish was poor and the population will continue to be an over-fish status. The Snohomish wild forecast is only 60,000 and even with no fishing unless the actual escapement at least a 1/3 more than forecast the Snohomish will likely to continue in an over-fished status. If the managers are going to respond to that status and with the potential pink fisheries with associated coho impacts the Straits and MA 9 seasons may shrink.

On the Chinook front the forecast is only about 90% of the 2020 forecast though the the number of wild fish is up slightly. Unfortunately the Stillaguamish forecast is exactly the same and so it will once again be a major limiting stock for PS mixed stock recreational fisheries. Without some innovative manage expect seasons similar to last year.

Curt
 

Salmo_g

WFF Supporter
A few years ago I heard that, excepting the Hatchery Division, about 70% of Fish Program staff are occupied with NOF from January to mid-April. Since the Puget Sound seasons - and not just salmon - are whatever the treaty tribes decide we can have, we could save a lot of taxpayer dollars if WDFW simply stayed out of NOF altogether. The recreational seasons would apparently be the same as having WDFW involved.
 

johnnyboy

New Member
My goodness the Chum run is forecasted to be horrible.

Skagit - 4,103
Snoho - 9,809
Nooksack - 27,674
Stilly - 11,491

What has happened? Some of these rivers used to get 100,000+ not that long ago.
 

bk paige

Wishin I was on the Sauk
My goodness the Chum run is forecasted to be horrible.

Skagit - 4,103
Snoho - 9,809
Nooksack - 27,674
Stilly - 11,491

What has happened? Some of these rivers used to get 100,000+ not that long ago.


Record harvest in the early 2000's, I called the BIO about the lack of fish and she said the commercial fleet was having a record harvest. I asked if they planned to shut it down, NOPE keep on keeping on.
 

CreekScrambler

Active Member
My goodness the Chum run is forecasted to be horrible.

Skagit - 4,103
Snoho - 9,809
Nooksack - 27,674
Stilly - 11,491

What has happened? Some of these rivers used to get 100,000+ not that long ago.
There’s a very large foreign market where chum eggs are highly valuable. Commercial pressure and ocean conditions and all the other stuff means very few will be around until at least the commercial demand is limited via tighter regs. But, it’s more important to prop up a handful of jobs at the expense of those runs. I’ve only seen a half dozen scattered chum carcasses on the Skagit/Sauk in 12 trips since December. Can’t help but think that the eagles were gonna have to go elsewhere for that winter forage.
 

Joepa

Joe from PA
Apparently they've come to an agreement. Looks like Neah bay will be open 7 days a week starting June 19-July 3rd for Chinook and then July 4-Sept 15 for hatchery Coho (5,730 quota) and Chinook (5,825). Closed inside for Chinook after Aug 1. Haven't seen anything yet for Area 5. It should be a great year to get out to Neah if they decide to open up. I haven't heard anything new on that front in month though.

Westport has a +20K hatchery Coho quota and the Columbia area is +42K so lots of coho expected back in the Columbia this year. Should be some great fishing down there.
 

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