I trust no one when it comes to weather. The weather we have here are so...EMO. I do trust the radio once I'm in the water. and I'll decided if I want to be in that water when I'm at the launch. Always think of safety and consequences.
I had an acquaintance who was the Feds head meteorologist for the Spokane WA area. His forecast one early winter day was for "partly cloudy and cold" It snowed hard that night and a mutual friend called him at 6 am and said "Hey Bob, you want to come over and shovel this 6" of partly cloudy off my driveway"
I don't even remember the last time I cancelled a trip because of the forecast. That includes fishing the OP in winter. But I strongly second Weather Underground. It was the best tool for predicting when I could cut/rake/bale hay in a tight weather window.
When I was a grad student at the UW in the 80's, one of my best friends was a grad student in Geophysics, which shared building space with Atmospheric Sciences in the Johnson Hall Annex. On the top floor they had all of the best available real-time weather data coming in from many sources, including radar, satellite feeds, ground weather stations, ocean bouys, etc. Every week they would have a betting pool to try to predict the weather for the coming weekend, with several parameters to predict (temp, rain, wind, etc.). These guys were professors and Ph.D. students and real data whores for such stuff and they still had a tremendous amount of variation in their forecasts.
Models and data are better today than they were the, but it is still really hard to predict weather with much precision more than about 24 hours out.